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 maximum likelihood estimator


Sub-Gaussian Concentration and Entropic Normality of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator

arXiv.org Machine Learning

It is well known that, under standard regularity conditions, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) satisfies a central limit theorem and converges in distribution to a Gaussian random variable as the sample size grows. This paper strengthens this classical result by developing several stronger forms of asymptotic normality for the normalized MLE. With additional assumptions on the score, we first establish sub-Gaussian tail bounds and convergence of all moments for the normalized estimation error. We then prove an entropic central limit theorem for a smoothed version of the estimator, showing convergence in relative entropy to the limiting Gaussian law. When the Fisher information of the normalized estimate is bounded, or its density has bounded first derivative, we further show that the smoothing can be removed, yielding entropic normality of the MLE itself. The proofs develop auxiliary tools that may be of independent interest, including exponential consistency bounds, high-moment estimates, and entropy-control arguments for the estimator.



Trimmed Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Robust Learning in Generalized Linear Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study the problem of learning generalized linear models under adversarial corruptions. We analyze a classical heuristic called the iterative trimmed maximum likelihood estimator which is known to be effective against label corruptions in practice. Under label corruptions, we prove that this simple estimator achieves minimax near-optimal risk on a wide range of generalized linear models, including Gaussian regression, Poisson regression and Binomial regression. Finally, we extend the estimator to the more challenging setting of label and covariate corruptions and demonstrate its robustness and optimality in that setting as well.



05b12f103c9e613efc4c85674cdc9066-Paper-Conference.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

Under label corruptions, we prove that this simple estimator achieves minimax near-optimal riskonawiderange ofgeneralized linear models, including Gaussian regression, Poisson regression and Binomial regression.


The Impact of Regularization on High-dimensional Logistic Regression

Neural Information Processing Systems

Logistic regression is commonly used for modeling dichotomous outcomes. In the classical setting, where the number of observations is much larger than the number of parameters, properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in logistic regression are well understood. Recently, Sur and Candes~\cite{sur2018modern} have studied logistic regression in the high-dimensional regime, where the number of observations and parameters are comparable, and show, among other things, that the maximum likelihood estimator is biased. In the high-dimensional regime the underlying parameter vector is often structured (sparse, block-sparse, finite-alphabet, etc.) and so in this paper we study regularized logistic regression (RLR), where a convex regularizer that encourages the desired structure is added to the negative of the log-likelihood function. An advantage of RLR is that it allows parameter recovery even for instances where the (unconstrained) maximum likelihood estimate does not exist. We provide a precise analysis of the performance of RLR via the solution of a system of six nonlinear equations, through which any performance metric of interest (mean, mean-squared error, probability of support recovery, etc.) can be explicitly computed. Our results generalize those of Sur and Candes and we provide a detailed study for the cases of $\ell_2^2$-RLR and sparse ($\ell_1$-regularized) logistic regression. In both cases, we obtain explicit expressions for various performance metrics and can find the values of the regularizer parameter that optimizes the desired performance. The theory is validated by extensive numerical simulations across a range of parameter values and problem instances.


Minimization of Functions on Dually Flat Spaces Using Geodesic Descent Based on Dual Connections

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose geodesic-based optimization methods on dually flat spaces, where the geometric structure of the parameter manifold is closely related to the form of the objective function. A primary application is maximum likelihood estimation in statistical models, especially exponential families, whose model manifolds are dually flat. We show that an m-geodesic update, which directly optimizes the log-likelihood, can theoretically reach the maximum likelihood estimator in a single step. In contrast, an e-geodesic update has a practical advantage in cases where the parameter space is geodesically complete, allowing optimization without explicitly handling parameter constraints. We establish the theoretical properties of the proposed methods and validate their effectiveness through numerical experiments.


Sparse Optimistic Information Directed Sampling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many high-dimensional online decision-making problems can be modeled as stochastic sparse linear bandits. Most existing algorithms are designed to achieve optimal worst-case regret in either the data-rich regime, where polynomial dependence on the ambient dimension is unavoidable, or the data-poor regime, where dimension-independence is possible at the cost of worse dependence on the number of rounds. In contrast, the sparse Information Directed Sampling (IDS) algorithm satisfies a Bayesian regret bound that has the optimal rate in both regimes simultaneously. In this work, we explore the use of Sparse Optimistic Information Directed Sampling (SOIDS) to achieve the same adaptivity in the worst-case setting, without Bayesian assumptions. Through a novel analysis that enables the use of a time-dependent learning rate, we show that SOIDS can optimally balance information and regret. Our results extend the theoretical guarantees of IDS, providing the first algorithm that simultaneously achieves optimal worst-case regret in both the data-rich and data-poor regimes. We empirically demonstrate the good performance of SOIDS.


Minimax-optimal Inference from Partial Rankings

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper studies the problem of rank aggregation under the Plackett-Luce model. The goal is to infer a global ranking and related scores of the items, based on partial rankings provided by multiple users over multiple subsets of items. A question of particular interest is how to optimally assign items to users for ranking and how many item assignments are needed to achieve a target estimation error. Without any assumptions on how the items are assigned to users, we derive an oracle lower bound and the Cram\'er-Rao lower bound of the estimation error. We prove an upper bound on the estimation error achieved by the maximum likelihood estimator, and show that both the upper bound and the Cram\'er-Rao lower bound inversely depend on the spectral gap of the Laplacian of an appropriately defined comparison graph. Since random comparison graphs are known to have large spectral gaps, this suggests the use of random assignments when we have the control. Precisely, the matching oracle lower bound and the upper bound on the estimation error imply that the maximum likelihood estimator together with a random assignment is minimax-optimal up to a logarithmic factor. We further analyze a popular rank-breaking scheme that decompose partial rankings into pairwise comparisons. We show that even if one applies the mismatched maximum likelihood estimator that assumes independence (on pairwise comparisons that are now dependent due to rank-breaking), minimax optimal performance is still achieved up to a logarithmic factor.